I took Saturday off and went surfing.
The day was cool, the Atlantic freezing and the tide low. Overhead planes slid down from the sky toward JFK airport. On my first wave, I paddled in, watching over my left shoulder as the water built behind me. Suddenly, the wave jacked up to almost 90 degrees as the water beneath sucked out, pulling the nose of my board sharply down. In seconds I was enveloped in a swirl of freezing darkness. The combination of a swell and a strong rip current changed the wave structure. The perils of surfing at low tide. Later, as the tide came in, the waves mellowed.
Surfing is the most difficult sport I’ve tried to learn, like playing tennis if the lines, net and court undulated in only modestly predictable patterns. Surfing, or fluid dynamics, is also a useful metaphor for investing—and right now there are a few major currents moving at once. The net of them determines the safety of our jobs and the value of our savings. I wish there were fixed rules and strategies, but this type of certainty does not exist. Instead, we must navigate waves, rips and currents.
The main currents now are:
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