Getting Paid To Wait
Plus, a podcast with Ivan Maisel
"We have divided among us, like thieves, the treasure of nights and days.”
Jorge Borges, 1899-1986
“A few weeks after Max died, it just dawned on me, ‘I can’t outrun this.’”
Ivan Maisel, on the loss of his son, Max. The full episode is here.
“My hope is that revisions confirm the progress we have seen.”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on upcoming revisions to CPI
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. INVESTING IS RISKY AND OFTEN PAINFUL. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Today, I want to share three distinct observations regarding:
a. This week’s podcast
b. Politics from a trader’s perspective and
c. The Fed and getting paid to wait.
Most of this week’s post is for paid subscribers, which begins at the Investment Implications section below.
The Podcast
My writing here is often about the “macro” – growth, inflation, assets and geopolitics. The macro is, however, made up of the micro, our individual life stories, which is what makes for a great podcast. I’m particularly drawn to adversity, how we deal with it, its many forms. This grew out of my first book, Raising a Thief.
Today’s podcast is a story of pain of the most difficult sort, losing a child. I know a number of readers who have also experienced this first hand. Ivan Maisel is a gifted writer who covers college sports for a living. He has three kids, one of whom took his own life in college. His book, I Keep Trying to Catch His Eye, is not an easy read but for any parent, particularly of a neurological non-typical one, an important one. You can hear the full episode here.
Politics
I look at politics more from a trader’s perspective than a pollster's. This week, two events stood out to me—-Taiwan and New Hampshire.
Regular readers know I traveled to Taiwan late last year. You can read Letter from Taiwan here. The candidate that Beijing hates, Lai Ching te, won last weekend’s vote. Most interesting is that Beijing didn’t react strongly. Sometimes what doesn’t happen is more interesting than what does.
I got interested in Taiwanese companies due to a) their comparative expertise in tech and b) because Buffet pulled out due to perceived political risk. What if the political risk isn’t as bad as it appears? What if China is facing a) a very weak economy (despite the official numbers) b) sees what has happened to Putin in Ukraine and c) knows that the Taiwan Straight is a lot wider than the English Channel and are reconsidering the attraction of a D-Day style reunification by force? If so, that’s bullish.
In the US, Americans seem to agree on just one thing—they don’t want either Trump or Biden as President. The New Hampshire Primary is this coming week and the three potential Republican nominees are all on the hustings. Haley is surging in the polls but still trails. I’m told many Democrats are re-registering as Independents so they can participate in the primary.
Source: 538
The metaphor is Jaws. Trump is the Great White shark, a savage beast whose primary aim is chaos. Nicky Haley is Hooper, the hapless biologist who heroically slaughters the shark. Can she pull it off?
Source: Universal
Because Trump is favored to win, the odds of Haley pulling off an upset are low. But that’s a trade I like, long Haley and short Biden and Trump. Not necessarily because she wins, but because she is discounted to lose at a time when the presumed nominees are so heavily disliked. Wouldn’t it be so very American if the first female President is not a Democrat but a Republican born Nimarata Nikki Randhawa?
I am traveling up to New Hampshire to watch a campaign event live and get an on-the-ground feel. My initial read is that Haley lacks the charisma of a Reagan, Clinton or Obama. But maybe being more or less normal and not old is enough?
Investment Implications