As always, love your takes—in part because I largely disagree with it from what I've seen, but always great to get perspective on the other side from smart people.
To add a bit more color to it: most of the AI complete-job-takeover stuff I've largely seen has been jobs that are on the decline anyway. For example, article mills for "Top 5 things this summer to..." Whether it's for manual labor or a lot of other things, it's generally been replacing job openings in a labor market that is tight anyway. There's been very few true cases of "losing workers." If you want reports on this, I did a bunch of interviews in different industries from our portfolio companies (and companies outside of it) in AI on this exact point.
That being said, I do wonder what will happen to ENTRY level jobs over time (is it just pure busywork, treating juniors as worse versions of AI?), but that will take some time to play out. I think our situation might be quite different if we were in a world with a rapidly growing population, rather than demographic challenges in most the developed world. But that situation is what it is.
Regardless, I expect the economy to shift. We used to have calculators (not the electronic ones, but the job where people sat in rooms doing calculations), but that job is totally gone. If AGI comes into being, all bets are off, but in the meantime, AI seems more like a great new productivity tool than something that breaks labor markets. That being said, I think your point on inflation itself is a good one—we don't need mass unemployment to have massive productivity gains pushing down prices of goods/services.
As for how that plays into market action... who knows. There's so much volatility right now.
Amazing you only see one side of this. As an “economist” you should view all data and weigh it appropriately. To ignore everything the dems have done within the courts is what? Ignorant? Foolish? Biased? It’s all bad, yes. But you’re missing the point. The point is, it all needs to be destroyed and rebuilt. The gop has. And, now that has to happen with the Democratic Party. The dems refuse to pivot and that means the beatings will continue.
As always, love your takes—in part because I largely disagree with it from what I've seen, but always great to get perspective on the other side from smart people.
To add a bit more color to it: most of the AI complete-job-takeover stuff I've largely seen has been jobs that are on the decline anyway. For example, article mills for "Top 5 things this summer to..." Whether it's for manual labor or a lot of other things, it's generally been replacing job openings in a labor market that is tight anyway. There's been very few true cases of "losing workers." If you want reports on this, I did a bunch of interviews in different industries from our portfolio companies (and companies outside of it) in AI on this exact point.
That being said, I do wonder what will happen to ENTRY level jobs over time (is it just pure busywork, treating juniors as worse versions of AI?), but that will take some time to play out. I think our situation might be quite different if we were in a world with a rapidly growing population, rather than demographic challenges in most the developed world. But that situation is what it is.
Regardless, I expect the economy to shift. We used to have calculators (not the electronic ones, but the job where people sat in rooms doing calculations), but that job is totally gone. If AGI comes into being, all bets are off, but in the meantime, AI seems more like a great new productivity tool than something that breaks labor markets. That being said, I think your point on inflation itself is a good one—we don't need mass unemployment to have massive productivity gains pushing down prices of goods/services.
As for how that plays into market action... who knows. There's so much volatility right now.
I have plenty of thoughts on this....pls email me at paul@katecapllc.com and I'll write a response that is captured for our compliance records.
Amazing you only see one side of this. As an “economist” you should view all data and weigh it appropriately. To ignore everything the dems have done within the courts is what? Ignorant? Foolish? Biased? It’s all bad, yes. But you’re missing the point. The point is, it all needs to be destroyed and rebuilt. The gop has. And, now that has to happen with the Democratic Party. The dems refuse to pivot and that means the beatings will continue.