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Putin might lose the war in Ukraine, which helps explain why he is threatening chemical and nuclear weapons and also reaching out to China for help. In that regards, my conversation with Yuhua Wang is timely. Yuhua has both an amazing life story and is also an expert in Chinese politics at Harvard. I very much enjoyed my chat with him and think you will, too. You can listen to the full conversation here.
People versus Politics
In every country, but particularly now in both Russia and China, it is important to distinguish between people and politics. I’ve spent a lot of time in both and treasure my friendships in each. Many of the people kind enough to speak with me are thoughtful, worldly, curious, hospitable and funny.
The extraordinary things that emerge from these places—Dostoyevsky, Akhmatova, ballet, calligraphy, Lao Tzu, Song and Ming Dynasty ceramics, to name the most obvious—reflect distinct, beautiful and enduring cultures. In fact, I’ve often had more interesting exchanges there than in the US or Europe. There is the unique cultural prism but also a modern history so volatile it forces people to think more broadly.
Yuhua talks about seeing tanks roll into Beijing as a child during the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and subsequent massacre. Those are the things that shift perspective. The last military action in the town I live in occurred in the 18th century.
“Before [Tiananmen] I was not aware of politics,” Yuhua said.
In peaceful times, words like “politics” or “foreign affairs” are abstract. In periods of conflict, politics is who gets to control the tanks and foreign policy is how to prevent someone else’s tanks from seizing your home. While I treasure my Russian and Chinese relationships, the leaders and their enablers are a different matter, which is why we are seeing abhorent images of a bombed Ukrainian children’s hospital.
The Ruling Classes
Russia and China are ruled by a modern-day czar and emperor with concentrated power simply inconceivable in the West. While both the East and West share TikTok, electricity and similar family values, the ruling mechanism in Beijing and Moscow is from long ago. To understand what games are going on in the Kremlin, you have to understand how a King’s court works.
“Politics can be cruel and unpredictable,” said Yuhua.
In China’s history there have been roughly 400 emperors. According to Yuhua, half of them died of unnatural causes, either outright murdered or dying in battle, whether killed by their own troops or opposing ones is not clear. The biggest risk is from elites. Putin must be aware of precedents like Romania’s dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, executed in 1989 after the military turned against him.
Given the job description, choosing acolytes is complicated because the Leader requires contradictory characteristics—loyalty and capability. There are lots of capable people in Russia, Putin is prioritizing loyalty. Medieval systems look strong—less fractious than a Democracy—but rely on intricate networks to retain power and the longer they last the more unwieldy these networks become. This is perhaps why the Soviet Union only lasted three generations.
Staring at Our Flaws
For Russia to move past its Stalinist past, the entire country will need to stare at its own sins. On Twitter (@paul_podolsky), I posted a TV appearance with then-Russian politician Irina Khakamada from six years ago. In it, she rails against Russia’s penchant for blaming outsiders for their own difficulties and Ukraine’s desire to break free from Kremlin interference.
“Write down my words,” she says, “and listen to them in 15 years.” Blaming Western conspiracies for Russia’s problems, instead of staring at Russia’s own actions like purges, criminality and corruption will lead, she predicted, “to Russia’s collapse.”
Is Russia on the verge of something that cataclysmic? Video on Telegram channels (always tough to know context) show Russians scrambling to buy sugar. Given food shortages under the Soviet Union, sanctions-related economic distress will instantly trigger deep fears and maybe more widespread unrest, though polls show support for Putin and my mother-in-law is so far unmoved.
For China, staring at the dark corners of their history means a nationwide reckoning with the Cultural Revolution, Tiananmen Square and cult of personality. If that sounds easy, look at how tortured the conversation about the legacy of slavery is in the US. Typically, it takes some sort of massive, devastating shock for a country, a culture, and a people to stare at their collective sins. Germany comes to mind. While we watch how Xi plays this crisis, Yuhua provides great perspective on what is going on behind the scenes.