I’ve spent years trading, in newsrooms, and out on the road, all while balancing marriage and raising kids. This unique perspective comes to bear on my writing, books, and podcasts. I started my career as a journalist in 1990s Russia, writing for Novaya Gazeta, The Moscow Times, and Hearst. I met my wife in Russia and we returned to the US to raise a family. I spent 20+ years on Wall St, most of that time at Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world. There we spent our days studying economic history and how markets work. I tested these ideas out in a portfolio continuously run since 2007. I believe the world can be understood but it isn’t easy and requires a combination of rigorous economic analysis overlaid with history, cultural understanding, and creativity. I was educated at Brown University, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts in association with Harvard), and the Maurice Thorez School of Foreign Languages. I am fluent in Russian and have also studied Chinese, French, and Spanish. I continue to be motivated by the same curiosity that drove me to Moscow in my 20s.
Who am I?
I’m a writer and investor, the founder of Still Press and Kate Capital, a money management firm. In addition to this Substack, I’ve published two books, Raising a Thief, a non-fiction about being a parent, and Master, Minion, a thriller about love, loyalty, escape and financial war. My next book—Uncomfortable Truths About Money—comes out this fall. You may have seen my writing in The Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg or The South China Morning Post. I started my career in Russia and spent a lot of time in China. I am a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. I’ve also worked as a carpenter, bike courier, and climbing instructor. You can follow me on Twitter here.
Because you will better understand what is going on, both the big picture and how individuals sort through their challenges and see how I translate this into investments. You will sound smarter to friends and your boss and learn something in the process. Moreover, this content creates a community, emailing, talking and commenting to each other.
I share both how to think about an economy, here. And how to invest, here. The writing is then connected to individual lives. For instance, in China Context I wrote about the Cultural Revolution. In the podcast, Gao Xiqing, describes living through it. In All Companies Die I wrote about economic disruption. In the podcast, photographer Paul Fetters describes the death of film and the birth of digital. Letter to A Younger person is in part about growing up without money, which relates to my conversation with Eileen Murray.
What type of content do I publish?
Linked below are some reader favorites:
Letter to a Young Person - Useful guidelines about how money works that I wish I’d known when I started out.
All Companies Die - About the instability of wealth and any company we either work at or invest in.
What can I expect from a paid subscription?
bi-monthly premium posts about foreign policy and investment insights
my asset allocation
The information in these posts and on this website is not and should not be construed as investment advice. Investing is risky and can and will involve losses. Nothing here should be taken as an option as to the price at which any security is trading or advice about the merits of an investment decision. You get to see what I am up to and need to make your own decisions regarding investment decisions and not rely on what I’ve written here.
“I deeply respect this analysis. I wish more geopolitical market commentators would pay attention to these kind of key benchmark numbers as we enter a new era of “system competition”… Thank you Paul
- Drew Guff, Founding Partner, Singular Guff
-Robert Podorefsky, Adjunct Professor at Brandeis Business School
“Love this podcast. The interviews are well done - I’m wondering the questions moments before they’re asked and the interviews always end up going in directions that lead to interesting, well researched places. Highly recommend.” — Staceyfurt, 10/14/2021
“Beautiful and diverse range of life experiences and wisdom in this podcast
Paul does a great job capturing the essence of his interviewee and pulling out the richness of their story . Each person brings a unique life experience and perspective. Also his book , Raising a Thief, is fantastic”
— abcde12678 , 06/11/2021