Paul, I would not usually comment publicly on what you say, because, because…in the end I value your friendship more than your opinion. But in the end it was the heated debates we had together (and the family ties we also created together) that cemented our bond.
So…
Financially you are always theoretically wrong, but you win by exploiting niches and relentless analysis of small facts (who dared to go to small suburbs near Moscow? Who proposed me to tour third tier China cities together?)
Politically, you are always theoretically right, but you loose by exploiting niches…
I am skeptical they can catch up bc they have to control the outputs of ai. Like ai can’t say Mao caused the biggest man made starvation in history. So there is speed of processing and there is exploration. In skeptical they can do the second part but yes we should watch carefully.
I hear you on that, I used to think the same thing. Jordan Schneider pointed out on his China podcast a while ago that making sure AI doesn’t say certain things is something that the West has figured out (he called it a “solved problem”. For example it is very hard to get chatGPT to say something overtly racist. Anyway I have a lot to learn technically but thought it was an interesting point
Ah I misread your original statement. You weren't saying that they can't control the outputs of AI, but just that controllign them may hinder progress and exploration. Got it
Kind of grim, but it’s a useful reminder of history—this stuff happened before and can happen again. It’s always inconceivable in the moment, but if you read contemporaneous accounts… it was back then too.
Paul, I would not usually comment publicly on what you say, because, because…in the end I value your friendship more than your opinion. But in the end it was the heated debates we had together (and the family ties we also created together) that cemented our bond.
So…
Financially you are always theoretically wrong, but you win by exploiting niches and relentless analysis of small facts (who dared to go to small suburbs near Moscow? Who proposed me to tour third tier China cities together?)
Politically, you are always theoretically right, but you loose by exploiting niches…
Enough of running the paradox.
You are right on this one.
Thanks PY!
Curious your thoughts on deepseek and the implications if China manages to catch up in AI (a big if)
I am skeptical they can catch up bc they have to control the outputs of ai. Like ai can’t say Mao caused the biggest man made starvation in history. So there is speed of processing and there is exploration. In skeptical they can do the second part but yes we should watch carefully.
I hear you on that, I used to think the same thing. Jordan Schneider pointed out on his China podcast a while ago that making sure AI doesn’t say certain things is something that the West has figured out (he called it a “solved problem”. For example it is very hard to get chatGPT to say something overtly racist. Anyway I have a lot to learn technically but thought it was an interesting point
Whether that is right or not, a lot of uncertainty. Bears watching as you say
Ah I misread your original statement. You weren't saying that they can't control the outputs of AI, but just that controllign them may hinder progress and exploration. Got it
Kind of grim, but it’s a useful reminder of history—this stuff happened before and can happen again. It’s always inconceivable in the moment, but if you read contemporaneous accounts… it was back then too.
Agreed. It’s a matter of degree. Hopefully this one is milder.
So Paul, bottom line, where is your money? Short and long term.
The Ds are no longer in power so I didn’t focus on them. It is messy to be sure.