I thought of adding Trump to the list but wanted to limit it to current political leaders. Much will come down to the behavior or people we don't know. That's why Trump was unable to overturn the 2020 vote, despite his best efforts. Will the Senate apply a brake? So far, there is not much sign of that.
Maybe add Musk to your list. I wonder how intelligence interact with these traits. Xi and Putin have been able to consolidate power for a long time... hard to argue they have not done well for themselves. Musk has done well for himself... he isnt Gengis Khan, but he will probably have over 40 kids by the time he is uploaded to the cloud and maybe hundreds more after. I'd guess Trump isn't as smart as this cohort... maybe he fails/break things more thoroughly. In liberal democracies smart people with these traits could win by strategically cooperation/playing win-win strategies a lot of the time and appearing to be virtous. The willingness to openly show your true colors (i.e. blatant corruption via things like Trump Coin) is not a good sign. Markets are pricing this as upside... a proto fascist pro business regime as being good. Maybe that is right. But the downside that post World War II america-led win win world is over is not discounted.
""no, this is not about fentanyl. Instead, tariffs focus attention on Trump. That’s why the cameras are rolling when he signs executive orders.""
Where I am from we call this transparency. Trump discussed each executive order and why it was important as he signed it. I suppose you are happier when a brain dead and demented Biden, lets some faceless bureaucrat write up and sign his EO's quietly and in secret while he is busy taking a nap. Biden was a disgrace and even Jimmy Carter would have been an improvement over the horror show we endured for the last 4 years. You are letting Trump derangement syndrome cloud your judgement
It’s sometimes cliche to say things are uncertain (it’s always uncertain), but I totally agree with you that the driver of this uncertainty is truly a thing we haven’t had to deal with in recent memory. Appreciate your thoughts as always, Paul. Keep them coming
Thanks Paul. Excellent piece. I am really struggling with some of the voodoo economic theory being spouted in defence of tariffs. Am keeping receipts. If Krugman thinks he will never live down the fax machine comment, Miran, Bessent and Lutnick are composing an epic greatest hits list!
I thought of adding Trump to the list but wanted to limit it to current political leaders. Much will come down to the behavior or people we don't know. That's why Trump was unable to overturn the 2020 vote, despite his best efforts. Will the Senate apply a brake? So far, there is not much sign of that.
Maybe add Musk to your list. I wonder how intelligence interact with these traits. Xi and Putin have been able to consolidate power for a long time... hard to argue they have not done well for themselves. Musk has done well for himself... he isnt Gengis Khan, but he will probably have over 40 kids by the time he is uploaded to the cloud and maybe hundreds more after. I'd guess Trump isn't as smart as this cohort... maybe he fails/break things more thoroughly. In liberal democracies smart people with these traits could win by strategically cooperation/playing win-win strategies a lot of the time and appearing to be virtous. The willingness to openly show your true colors (i.e. blatant corruption via things like Trump Coin) is not a good sign. Markets are pricing this as upside... a proto fascist pro business regime as being good. Maybe that is right. But the downside that post World War II america-led win win world is over is not discounted.
""no, this is not about fentanyl. Instead, tariffs focus attention on Trump. That’s why the cameras are rolling when he signs executive orders.""
Where I am from we call this transparency. Trump discussed each executive order and why it was important as he signed it. I suppose you are happier when a brain dead and demented Biden, lets some faceless bureaucrat write up and sign his EO's quietly and in secret while he is busy taking a nap. Biden was a disgrace and even Jimmy Carter would have been an improvement over the horror show we endured for the last 4 years. You are letting Trump derangement syndrome cloud your judgement
Do you think the tariffs are good for the economy? If so, how? Small cap stocks are off 2.7% as I write this. Tech stocks are off 2%.
It’s sometimes cliche to say things are uncertain (it’s always uncertain), but I totally agree with you that the driver of this uncertainty is truly a thing we haven’t had to deal with in recent memory. Appreciate your thoughts as always, Paul. Keep them coming
It is a really challenging environment. Agreed.
Thanks Paul. Excellent piece. I am really struggling with some of the voodoo economic theory being spouted in defence of tariffs. Am keeping receipts. If Krugman thinks he will never live down the fax machine comment, Miran, Bessent and Lutnick are composing an epic greatest hits list!
I go for the simple explanations. This is bad for growth. That's why stocks are down.