I’ve spent years trading, in newsrooms, and out on the road, all while balancing marriage and raising kids. This unique perspective comes to bear on my investing, writing, books, and podcasts. I am the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Kate Capital, a global macro investment manager. I started my career as a journalist in 1990s Russia. I’ve spent almost 30 years on Wall St, including 16 years at Bridgewater Associates, the biggest hedge fund in the world. I founded Kate Capital in 2024 and have tracked my ideas in a portfolio continuously run since 2007. The world can be understood but it isn’t easy and requires a combination of rigorous economic analysis overlaid with history, cultural understanding, and creativity. I was educated at Brown University, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts in association with Harvard), and the Maurice Thorez School of Foreign Languages. I am fluent in Russian and have also studied Chinese, French, and Spanish.
Who am I?
In addition to this Substack, I’ve published three books. Two of them are non-fiction, one about being a parent, Raising a Thief, and another about work, The Uncomfortable Truth About Money. I also wrote an award-winning thriller about global financial war, Master, Minion. You may have seen my writing in The Wall Street Journal or Bloomberg or The South China Morning Post. I am a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. I’ve worked as a carpenter, bike courier, and climbing instructor. You can follow me on Twitter here.
Why subscribe?
Because you will better understand what is going on. Understanding how prices shift is a fundamental, objective prism into reality. You may also sound smarter to friends and your boss and learn something in the process. Moreover, this content creates a community, emailing, talking and commenting to each other.
The writing is then connected to individual lives. For instance, in China Context I wrote about the Cultural Revolution. In the podcast, Gao Xiqing, describes living through it. In All Companies Die I wrote about economic disruption. In the podcast, photographer Paul Fetters describes the death of film and the birth of digital. Letter to A Younger person is in part about growing up without money, which relates to my conversation with Eileen Murray.
Legal
The information in these posts and on this website is not and should not be construed as investment advice. Investing is risky and can and will involve losses. Nothing here should be taken as an option as to the price at which any security is trading or advice about the merits of an investment decision. You get to see what I am up to and need to make your own decisions regarding investment decisions and not rely on what I’ve written here.
Reader Feedback:
“I deeply respect this analysis. I wish more geopolitical market commentators would pay attention to these kind of key benchmark numbers as we enter a new era of “system competition”… Thank you Paul
- Drew Guff, Founding Partner, Singular Guff
“Brilliant.”
-Robert Podorefsky, Adjunct Professor at Brandeis Business School
“Love this podcast. The interviews are well done - I’m wondering the questions moments before they’re asked and the interviews always end up going in directions that lead to interesting, well researched places. Highly recommend.” — Staceyfurt, 10/14/2021
